Following Donald Trump’s re-election in November, the firearms industry is experiencing a familiar pattern—one that industry insiders and Second Amendment advocates call the “Trump Slump 2.0.” Gun sales, which surged under the Biden administration due to fears of potential gun control measures, have begun to decline as consumers feel less urgency to stock up on firearms.
According to the latest data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), background checks for gun purchases fell by 7.5% in December 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. The trend has continued into early 2025, reflecting a slowdown in demand as firearm owners anticipate fewer federal restrictions on gun ownership under a pro-Second Amendment White House.
A Familiar Trend in the Firearm Industry
This is not the first time gun sales have slumped following a Republican victory. The original “Trump Slump” occurred after Trump’s first election in 2016 when sales dipped after a record-breaking boom under the Obama administration. With fewer fears of impending regulations, many gun owners felt less urgency to buy, leading to overstocked inventories and financial struggles for some gun manufacturers.
A similar effect is now playing out. In 2020, under President Biden, firearms sales skyrocketed amid nationwide riots, COVID-19 lockdowns, and Democratic proposals for stricter gun laws. Sales remained high throughout Biden’s term, but with Trump returning to office, the market is cooling once again.
Industry Experts Weigh In
Despite the dip, firearms manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic. Mark Smith, CEO of Smith & Wesson, acknowledges the decline but says the company is prepared for market shifts.
“We’ve seen this pattern before, and while sales have slowed, we’re confident in the long-term strength of the Second Amendment community,” Smith said in a recent interview. “Consumers might not feel the same urgency to buy, but firearms remain a critical investment for personal protection and sport.”
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) reports that over 15.2 million background checks for firearm sales were still conducted in 2024, indicating that while demand has slowed, Americans are still purchasing guns at a healthy rate.
The Future of Gun Sales Under Trump
The question now is whether gun sales will remain in a slump or if new political battles will reignite demand. While President Trump has promised to protect Second Amendment rights, Democratic-led states and advocacy groups are continuing efforts to implement local and state-level gun control measures, which could prompt another surge in firearm purchases.
Additionally, some economic factors, including inflation and high interest rates, may also be contributing to the slowdown, making firearms a less immediate priority for some consumers.
For now, the “Trump Slump 2.0” is in full effect, but the industry’s history suggests that demand could quickly rebound if new political threats to gun rights emerge.
