California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) recently tried to score political points against former President Donald Trump in a clash over crime and the federal deployment of law enforcement to Democrat-led cities. Newsom claimed that if Trump were truly concerned about violent crime, he would send federal agents into Louisiana and Mississippi, where murder rates are far higher than California’s.
To bolster his point, Newsom noted that Louisiana’s murder rate is “nearly four times higher than California’s” and joined 18 other Democratic governors in denouncing Trump’s actions as “chaotic federal interference.”
But a deeper look at the numbers tells a different story.
Crime Concentrated in Democrat-Led Cities
An analysis by Issues & Insights found that the cities with the highest homicide rates in 2024 are overwhelmingly run by Democrats. Out of the top 20, only one—Shreveport, Louisiana—currently has a Republican mayor. Even there, the GOP leadership is a recent exception to a long history of Democrat control.
The pattern is clear: New Orleans hasn’t had a Republican mayor since 1872, Chicago since the Prohibition era, and many others for decades. These blue strongholds are driving up statewide crime statistics in otherwise Republican-leaning states.
Shifting Blame to “Red States”
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) has followed Newsom’s lead, blaming red states like Indiana, Mississippi, and Louisiana for Chicago’s gun violence. He argues that firearms are “trafficked” from Republican-led states and enabled by Trump.
Yet Illinois already has some of the strictest gun laws in the nation, earning an “A-” from the gun control group Giffords. The claim that red states or federal inaction are solely to blame doesn’t square with the facts.
Leadership and Law Enforcement Matter
As Issues & Insights points out, what drives crime rates is local leadership—district attorneys, mayors, and city councils. Policies such as cashless bail, lenient prosecutors, and understaffed police departments have created environments where criminals face little consequence.
Mayor Johnson even argued recently that jailing criminals is “racist, immoral, and unholy.” With rhetoric like this coming from the top, it is no surprise crime continues to spiral.
The “Red State Murder Problem” Debunked
The Heritage Foundation debunked the “red state murder problem” years ago. State-level homicide statistics are heavily skewed by the crime rates of large, Democrat-run cities. When researchers recalculated rates excluding cities like New Orleans (Orleans Parish), Jackson (Hinds County), and Chicago, homicide rates for their respective states dropped dramatically—Illinois’s by 55%.
In short, blaming conservative states for high murder rates ignores the reality that blue cities are driving the numbers.
Public Opinion and Federal Response
A new national poll shows 66% of Americans believe crime is a major problem nationwide, with more than 80% saying it is a major problem in large cities. Over half of respondents (55%) even support using the National Guard to back up local police, echoing Trump’s controversial policy.
The message is clear: voters want safer streets, not excuses.
Newsom’s Presidential Ambitions
Rumors suggest Gov. Newsom is eyeing a 2028 presidential run. If so, his dismissive “what-about-ism” on crime may not age well with voters increasingly alarmed by violence in their neighborhoods. The American public wants accountability and results, not finger-pointing.
